Monday, December 11, 2006

Predictions and Forecasts

Typically, the terms are used as synonyms - and it is important to remember that.
Principles of Forecasting, which is linked to by Journal of Forecasting, defines
Forecasting
Estimating in unknown situations. Predicting is a more general term and connotes estimating for any time series, cross-sectional, or longitudinal data. Forecasting is commonly used when discussing time series.

Prediction
A statement regarding future events or events that are unknown to the forecaster. Generally used as synonymous with forecast. Often, but not always used when the task involves forecasting with cross-sectional data (e.g., personnel predictions).

Forecast
A prediction or estimate of an actual value in a future time period (for time series) or for another situation (for cross-sectional data). Forecast, prediction, and prognosis are typically used interchangeably.

However since there are predictions and then there are predictions and then there are ofcourse forecasts - many people use these terms as 'jargon' with subtle differences; usually these are not obvious. Google gives some results which i will put when i update.

The defintion that is of significance to me was found on the NASA website where it talks in context of fluid dynamics here

Prediction.
Prediction is defined as
Use of a CFD model to foretell the state of a physical system under conditions for which the CFD model has not been validated. (AIAA G-077-1998)
Prediction is going beyond the validation database and performing simulations of untested systems.


The rest of the definitions at the NASA site are quite relevant too.

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