Sunday, February 25, 2007

Misspecified Model

Could not find the definition of 'misspecified model' directly. However, there are 2 links talking about it -

the statistical model he used to reach his conclusions is "misspecified." This means, in part, that he did not adequately account for other factors which have an impact on crime rates - and which provide an alternate explanations for his findings. When a statistical model is misspecified, it cannot be used as the basis from which to draw conclusions about the impact of policy decisions. One clue that a model is misspecified is if it produces implausible findings.
now if you see that this is being said in a debate against fire arms, you'll take the implausable findings with a pinch (no more) of salt.

Even a misspecified model can be highly accurate in its predictions. Its problems will show up in other ways (e.g. non-random error, which I am guessing is probably the case here; they are probably more likely to be wrong for some cases than for others, e.g. self-funders).
(In point of fact -- most media types tend to make predictions based upon isspecified models. And the biggest problem is not misspecification, but that they do not realize that they are actually using models in the first place. This is one of the many problems that occur when English majors do political science.)
ah that too is from a debate! the other side - lovely!!

oh and from
@inbook { White2006 ,chapter = "Approximate nonlinear forecasting methods",title = "Handbook of Economic Forecasting",volume = "1",author = "Halbert White",publisher = "Elsevier B.V."year = 2006}

When one's goal is to make predictions, the use of a misspecified model is by no means fatal. Our predictions will not be as good as tehy would be if \mu
(true function) were accessable.

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